6 days ago
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Rafael Leao is in excellent form for AC Milan, and tonight he will hope to get the better of Ademola Lookman in Atalanta-Milan.
As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) report this morning, Leao’s career has always been full of contradictions. His best league season in terms of goals (15) was in 2022-23, with Milan finishing fourth in the league.
Only a year earlier, the Rossoneri won their 19th Scudetto in a season in which he scored 11 goals, seven in the second half of the campaign. This decisive contribution was recognised by the Serie A MVP award.
For Massimiliano Allegri, Leao can combine everything: goals and skill; he can be both elegant and incisive, clinical and talented. Leao will continue to be the key figure in the Rossoneri’s attack, as more of a centre-forward than Santi Gimenez.
The numbers show that Leao – a former winger now moved to the centre of the penalty area – has already scored three goals in four games, with just two league starts. Gimenez, a natural striker, is stuck with zero goals.
Tonight they will be the front two, and Leao performs better like this. He leans on the last line of defence, exploits space and feels more free to look for goals outside the box. Everything is always aimed at scoring, and Max believes he can score another 18, maybe 20.
When asked if he can aim for 20-25 goals, Allegri responded: “I think he can reach those numbers. He’s improving in fitness, and he’s becoming more confident in his abilities as a striker. He needs to improve inside the box: he’s had big chances but hasn’t capitalised on them. He needs to be more clinical.”
More involvement
Leao’s central role is evident from the numbers: his team-mates look for him much more than Gimenez, who is more involved in his movements. Up front, the same thing happens as happens a little further back with Luka Modric: the ball goes to the Croatian, and he takes care of it.
Up front, the ball goes to Leao. Against Pisa, Rafa made 35 passes, Gimenez only eight. The former played 64 passes, compared to the latter’s 19, and consequently drew five fouls to the Mexican’s zero.
After weeks out injured and a slow and uncertain return, Leao is back as a sure thing. His three goals in the last four games have already highlighted his development as a goalscorer: goals from outside the box, two of the last three, were not in Rafa’s repertoire.
Allegri encouraged him to try. Leao, working on his aim, did the rest. Just like penalties: his first penalty goal was his 73rd (of 74) for AC Milan. He’d never taken a spot kick before, but you wouldn’t have been able to guess.
The data
Leao’s scoring average is one goal every 243 minutes across his career at Milan (74 goals in 265 total appearances, in 17,948 minutes on the pitch). It is a figure that drops when considering his last three Serie A matches: one goal every 76 minutes.
This figure drops further to one every 61.25 (one goal per hour) considering his numbers across all competitions: four goals – including in the Coppa Italia against Bari – in 245 minutes of play.
In between, there was a brief spell (48 minutes across substitute appearances against Napoli and Juventus) in which the new Rafa seemed to have relapsed into his old habits, indolent and imprecise. This, however, is a different Leao.
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