GdS: ‘Max’s quota’ – Allegri’s points calculations analysed including the title ‘dream’

There’s a number that’s been buzzing around the AC Milan world for more than a day: 74, which is Massimiliano Allegri’s obsession.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport write this morning, Allegri’s aim from the day that he signed his contract with Milan was very straightforward: to get into the top four and take the club back to its natural home, the Champions League.

Doing some sums

To be sure of finishing at least fourth, according to Allegri, 74 points are needed. His Milan team currently sit on 46, and if math is anything to go by, the Rossoneri would only need 28 points in the remaining 17 games to reach the target.

It is a pace of approximately 1.64 points per game, certainly within reach for a team that has so far averaged 2.19 points per game in the league. Yet Max is too experienced to be unaware of the dangers lurking in the depths of Serie A.

It’s no coincidence that he often reminds his team of what happened to him two years ago at Juventus, when on matchday 21 they had 52 points and a 17-point lead over fifth-place Bologna, which then steadily narrowed, until it jeopardised Champions League qualification with just a few rounds remaining.

That January, Juventus were widely considered the contenders to battle for the Scudetto with league-leaders Inter, who then had two points more. A similar scenario to the current one, with Allegri’s Milan three points below the top spot. The lead over fifth-placed Juventus, however, is much slimmer (+7).

The forbidden dream

The similarities between 2023-24 and 2025-26 don’t end there, because fifth place might be enough for the Rossoneri. Two seasons ago, thanks to the Italian teams’ strong performances in Europe, the Champions League spots were eventually increased to five, much to Bologna’s delight.

If that happened again, Milan would move their minimum target one spot lower, diverting attention to Como, currently sixth at -9. Today, however, it’s too early to make predictions about the UEFA rankings. That’s why Max remains stuck to his calculations.

He reiterates to those close to him that eight wins are needed between now and the end to limit the risks. With 24 points, four draws in the remaining nine games would be needed to reach the fateful 74 points.

The numbers 86, 88, 40 and 42 are worth mentioning. Allegri, in fact, has set a points range for the Scudetto as well. “Between 86 and 88,” he said after the victory over Lecce, almost as if he were speaking on cue.

Therefore, the Rossoneri would need to raise the bar to 40-42 points in 17 matchdays to have any hope of winning the title. Translated into a roadmap, between 2.35 and 2.47 per game between now and the end of May. A bit better than what they’ve achieved so far.

Max never mentions the Scudetto publicly. Slyly, he waits at least until February or March to see where his Milan will be. However, there are objective reasons to cultivate the dream.

The Rossoneri are the team that have lost the fewest times (just once in their opening match against Cremonese, then 20 consecutive games unbeaten) and are not involved in European competition.

To keep their hopes alive, they must improve against lower-ranking teams and maintain their pace against the big teams. In this sense, the next three away games against Roma, Bologna, and Pisa – while Inter will face Pisa, Cremonese, and Sassuolo – could provide important clues.