GdS: Three weeks that will ‘decide Milan’s season’ – why a critical period awaits

AC Milan will face Fiorentina away from home this afternoon, and it will be the start of a potentially season-defining three-week stretch.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport report, Milan will leave for a three-week trip. They will play in Florence, Como, at the Olimpico against Roma, and in Bologna. Four away games that – due to a peculiarity of the schedule – will be interrupted only by the home game against Lecce.

It almost never happens, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the Rossoneri have been better on the road this season, paradoxically.

A decisive period?

AC Milan will largely decide its fate in the next three weeks. It’s an old principle: it won’t be clear who will win the Scudetto, but we’ll understand who can’t.

Massimiliano Allegri sees high stakes on the horizon. Fiorentina, after months of drama, are in better form. Como are stronger than ever before in their history. Roma have won five of their last six at home. Bologna are struggling but are always a real nuisance to Milan.

Furthermore, the match against Lecce – easy on paper – comes amid a backdrop of points dropped against smaller teams at San Siro. The transfer window closes on February 2nd, while Inter and Napoli will also begin more crowded fixture lists, so it could really be a decisive few weeks.

In this first half of the season, Milan have won five of eight away games (Lecce, Udinese, Inter, Torino and Cagliari) and have not lost, at least in the league. The average is 2.25 points per game, higher than the 2.10 for home games.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

How often does a team perform better away from home? Not often, but with Milan, there’s a possible explanation. Allegri has no problem preparing games where Milan can sit back and wait for their moments.

Furthermore, San Siro brings an emotional advantage – the fans push you on – but also risks. For some players the pressure is hard to play under, especially when a game becomes difficult and impatience spreads.

The key, if anything, is to understand whether the team can withstand more difficult tests. Fiorentina, for example, is a testing atmosphere. The Franchi is the stadium where, last season, Milan conceded a goal to Yacine Adli and missed two penalties through Theo Hernandez and Tammy Abraham.

In 2023, Stefano Pioli lost 2-1 after a goal from Luka Jovic, who ended up at Milan. In the Scudetto year, La Viola won 4-3 with braces from Vlahovic and Ibrahimovic. It is never calm, less than three days’ rest won’t help, but adversity decides who is up for the fight.