Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool Champions League chances with surprising verdict

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Liverpool dropped more points this weekend in the race for the Champions League race, but Chelsea and Aston Villa both lost, so Arne Slot's men gained on both of them

Liverpool head coach Arne Slot.(Image: Gaspafotos/MB Media/Getty Images)

Liverpool is on track to finish inside the Champions League places this season, at least according to Opta's numbers — with the Reds predicted to finish ahead of Chelsea.

With eight games left, the Reds are fifth in the standings. They still have to play Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa in the run-in, with those clashes — two of which are away from home — potentially set to be decisive.

At the moment, Opta's supercomputer has Liverpool down to finish on 62 points, which would mean the Reds picking up 13 from a possible 24 to conclude the campaign. Chelsea is predicted to finish on 61.

Liverpool is given a 33 per cent chance of making the Champions League, with Chelsea on 23 per cent and Brentford on five per cent.

Manchester United is predicted to finish third on 66 points with an 80 per cent chance of getting into UEFA's top competition, with Aston Villa fourth on 64 points with a 56 per cent chance.

While Liverpool getting 13 points (four wins, a draw and three more defeats) is surprisingly suggested as being enough to make the Champions League places, that will in part depend on who those wins come against.

Arne Slot during a Liverpool press conference.(Image: Liverpool FC // YouTube)

A victory against Chelsea and Aston Villa, for instance, would be a six-pointer. Manchester United, without any other games outside of the Premier League, has a major advantage in terms of the schedule.

Slot was asked about his side's chances of reaching the Champions League after Richarlison earned Tottenham a point at Anfield this weekend.

"Of course it's damaging," he said. "But it's how many times this has been damaging for us. We don't help ourselves at all.

"It's so many times this season that we've created much more xG or chances than the amount of goals we score. Usually in the Premier League you see a lot of teams outperforming their xG, but that definitely is [not] what we are doing throughout the whole season.

"Then a game still stays tight until the end, and we struggle to keep clean sheets. We haven't had as many clean sheets as you would want if you want to go higher up in the table. That's a bad combination for picking up the amount of points we want to pick up."

Liverpool.com says: It is definitely possible that the Reds will make the Champions League places, but there is a question mark about whether that is enough to convince lots of people about the future.

Slot's side needs to play better and show some proper signs that it is heading in the right direction, rather than limping over the line. It needs to set the tone ahead of next season with a strong finish to this one.