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AC Milan have a rare midweek fixture to contest on Wednesday night, as they welcome Como to San Siro for a rescheduled game.
The match was originally meant to be played the weekend before last, but was moved due to the Winter Olympic opening ceremony causing a clash at San Siro. Nonetheless, it is a case of better late than never in terms of the game being played in Italy, given the now-kiboshed plan to have it in Australia.
Massimiliano Allegri spoke on the eve of the game in Pisa in his pre-match press conference, and while he downplayed the idea of a rivalry with Cesc Fabregas brewing, he stressed the importance of winning again to chase down the main objective: the top four.
Game date: Wednesday, February 18
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Maurizio Mariani (VAR: Gariglio)
Team news
Milan made it consecutive away wins on Friday night against Pisa, but they were forced to fight right until the final whistle in an eventual 2-1 victory. Ruben Loftus-Cheek opened the scoring, Niclas Füllkrug missed a penalty, Loyola equalised and then Luka Modric won it late on.
The bad news from that particular fixture concerns the red card that Adrien Rabiot got in the closing moments, for two yellow cards in quick succession. The first was for a foul on the edge of the box – which would have got him a suspension anyway – then the second was for protesting.
The more positive update from Monday’s training session at Milanello is that Alexis Saelemaekers returned to full training and will be part of the matchday squad to face the Lariani, having missed the last two games. That leaves Santiago Gimenez as the only injury absentee.
Going into Wednesday’s contest, there are a number of dilemmas for Allegri to resolve. The first one is in the three-man defence: will Koni De Winter come back having been dropped on Friday while in good form? If so, who does he replace?
At right wing-back, the coach must make a decision on whether to risk Saelemaekers from minute one or whether to keep faith in Zachary Athekame, who has had consecutive positive starts in which he had a hand in both opening goals.
Moving into midfield, Allegri must figure out how to replace what Rabiot brings given his suspension. Samuele Ricci, Ardon Jashari, Youssouf Fofana and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are in contention for the two spots either side of Modric.
Finally, there is the age-old question of which front two to pick. Christopher Nkunku, Füllkrug, Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic are the four players competing for two places. While Loftus-Cheek has started the last two games up front with Nkunku, it feels like he will be needed in midfield.
There have been plenty of questions about the starting XI, but it seems that De Winter will displace Fikayo Tomori in the otherwise unchanged backline. Moving forward, Ricci is set to be given the nod in the place of Rabiot.
Then, the biggest news of the game is that Rafael Leao is expected to return to the starting XI. He was actually expected to be back for the game against Pisa, but Massimiliano Allegri opted for Loftus-Cheek instead.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Athekame, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi; Nkunku, Leao.
Predicted Milan bench: Terracciano, Pittarella, Odogu, Tomori, Estupinan, Loftus-Cheek, Jashari, Pulisic, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Gimenez.
The opponents
It is just over one month since Milan last played Como, and prior to that game we recapped the ambitious business that they did in the summer window in our pre-match preview. Milan won that game 3-1, with Rabiot winning a penalty and scoring a brace to inspire a comeback.
That particular meeting in Como sparked a bit of a debate in the media. Como dominated possession and even the chances but a pragmatic Milan struck more at the other end and came away with all three points.
It would be fair to say that Cesc Fabregas congratulated the Rossoneri through heavily gritted teeth after the final whistle, and La Gazzetta dello Sport were among the media outlets to do a long analysis on the battle between style versus results.
Having spent over €100m in the summer mercato, Como invested a bit more in the winter window that closed two weeks ago. Stefan Posch signed from Bologna for €5.5m but was immediately loaned to Mainz, while Adrian Lahdo arrived from Hammarby for just shy of €12m, as per Transfermarkt.
The Lariani currently sit one point outside the final European spot (sixth, the UEFA Conference League position, currently held by Atalanta) but with this being their game in hand they would jump back up even with a point, by virtue of their impressive +20 goal difference.
After playing Milan on January 15, Como bounced back well with a 3-0 win away at Lazio and a 6-0 home victory over Torino, completing an 11-1 aggregate scoreline against the Granata over the two legs. Since then, though, they have drawn with Atalanta (0-0) and lost to Fiorentina (1-2).
In terms of selection issues for Fabregas, the big news is that Alvaro Morata will miss the game against his former side having been sent off in the defeat to Fiorentina, also for dissent towards the referee. Centre-back Edoardo Goldaniga and winger Assane Diao are out due to injury.
As a result, it should be a pretty template team for the Lariani. Butez will start in goal, whilst Smolcic, Carlos, Ramon and Moreno make up the bank of four ahead of him.
In the midfield, Perrone will once again partner Da Cunha, and the duo will hope for a little more success this time around, especially with Adrien Rabiot missing the game through suspension. Ahead of them, Nico Paz will also hope to provide a bit more influence.
Rodriguez and Baterina start on the flanks, if expectations are to be believed, whilst Serie A’s second-best goalscorer, Douvikas starts as the lone striker.
Predicted Como XI (4-2-3-1): Butez; Smolcic, Carlos, Ramon, Moreno; Perrone, Da Cunha; Rodriguez, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas.
Predicted Pisa bench: Tornqvist, Vigorito, Kempf, Caqueret, Roberto, Lahdo, Addai, Valle, Kuhn, Vojvoda, Van der Brempt.
Injuries & suspensions: Morata, Goldaniga, Diao.
Head to head
Milan and Como have faced each other 35 times across all competitions, with Milan winning on 20 occasions. The Biancoblu have just five wins, with the other 10 games being draws.
Last season marked the first two Serie A meetings between the teams since 2002-03, and Milan managed to secure a double. The Rossoneri won 2-1 away from home, with Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao scoring after Diao’s opener.
Como also went ahead at San Siro too through Da Cunha, but Pulisic and Tijjani Reijnders both scored in the second half to turn things around. The last time the Lariani beat Milan was back in 1985, so the wait is now over 50 years.
Key facts and stats
➤ Milan are unbeaten in their last 14 Serie A matches against Como (W9 D5), winning all of the last five games against the Lariani with an aggregate score of 11-4 – the Biancoblu’s last top-flight success against the Rossoneri was on 13 January 1985 (2-0 at the Meazza).
➤ Como have won just one of their 13 Serie A away matches against AC Milan (D4 L8), scoring only one goal in the most recent six; in their last four away games against the Rossoneri, Como have suffered four defeats, conceding on average 3.3 goals per match.
➤ Milan have won their last two Serie A matches against Lombardy teams (1-0 vs Inter, 3-1 vs Como). They have not recorded three consecutive wins in such fixtures since a run of six between February 2010 and January 2012, with the five most recent of those coming under Massimiliano Allegri.
➤ Milan are unbeaten in their last 23 consecutive Serie A matches (W15 D8). Only twice in their history have they registered a longer unbeaten streak in a single Serie A season: 24 games between December 1950 and May 1951, and 34 matches across the entire 1991-92 campaign.
➤ Milan have gained 25 points from 11 matches against teams currently in the top half of the Serie A table – the joint-most in the division (level with Inter, who have played 12 such games). Milan also boast the best defence in these fixtures, conceding just six goals and remaining unbeaten across these matches.
➤ Como have won each of their last three away league games (all 3-0 victories against Lecce, Pisa and Lazio) and a win in this match would see them record four consecutive away Serie A victories for the first time in their history.
➤ Considering the direct clashes between the current top seven teams in Serie A, only Roma (five points) have gained fewer points than Como (six points in seven matches); Como have also scored the fewest goals (four) in these encounters.
➤ Following his goal against Pisa in his most recent match, Luka Modric could score in two consecutive appearances only for the third time in his career in the five big European leagues. This would be after January 2019 and December 2020 (both times with Real Madrid).
➤ Adrien Rabiot will miss this Serie A match due to suspension; with him on the pitch, AC Milan have won 71% of their games (12 of 17), accruing 2.4 points per game and remaining unbeaten this Serie A season. Without the midfielder, the club have won 43% of their matches (3 of 7), registering 1.7 points on average.
➤ Nico Paz’s last four Serie A goals have come away from home (including a brace in his most recent match against Lazio on 19 January), whilst his first four goals in the competition were scored at the Sinigaglia. The 2004- born player could score in two consecutive away games for the first time in Serie A.
Ones to watch
For the second week in a row, if Rafael Leao fulfills the predictions and starts, he is instantly the one to watch. If he is a starter, it is because Massimiliano Allegri believes that he is 100% or close to it, and that is only exciting.
Samuele Ricci also provides a bit of a tap in here. The Italian will have a big job on Wednesday night, and if he passes with flying colours, there could potentially be a starting role for him in the future, perhaps instead of Youssouf Fofana.
Nico Paz, without a doubt, is one to watch for Como. Ultimately, he is one of the better players in the division, and he is in that small bracket who can flip a game on its head in a moment. He must be paid close attention to…
After Alvaro Morata’s red card, Anastasios Douvikas is also one to keep an eye on. The striker has eight goals this season, despite only starting 14 games. As a second fiddle option, that is a great ouput rate, and he will be looking to give Cesc Fabregas a reason to start him more regularly.
Prediction
This will be a really tough game for the Rossoneri, especially when considering the context from the first game. The Lariani will keep the ball for large spells of the game, so it is going to be down to what Milan can do when they get the ball.
Milan 2-1 Como
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