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AC Milan are about to reach the halfway point of their season, taking on Fiorentina away from home, and it will be a lot tougher than the league table suggests.
After 18 games played, Milan are sitting in second place with 39 points, the same points tally they had in the 2021-22 (Scudetto) season after 18 games. Tomorrow, they will officially reach the halfway point with their 19th game, albeit on matchday 20 due to the Supercoppa Italiana break.
As highlighted by Massimiliano Allegri in his press conference, it will be a very tough game for the Rossoneri, not just because it’s at Artemio Franchi but also because Fiorentina are in a good moment. Indeed, their best moment of the season.
Game date: Sunday, January 11
Kick-off time: 15:00 (CET)
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
Referee: Davide Massa (VAR: Fabio Maresca)
Team news
Allegri will pretty much have a full squad for tomorrow’s game, but there are some caveats to note. First of all, Fikayo Tomori will be serving a suspension due to the yellow card accumulation, which isn’t ideal given his importance this season.
Secondly, it was confirmed during the aforementioned presser that Luka Modric will be rested for the first time in the league this season. Then, of course, Santiago Gimenez is still recovering from his long-term injury.
On the bright side, Christopher Nkunku is fine and has travelled with the team, which means Allegri will have four options in attack. That hasn’t happened often this season and it’s also something the gaffer highlighted during the presser, clearly happy about the fact.
Moving on to the eleven, and starting at the back, Koni De Winter will be the one to replace the suspended Englishman. Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic will complete the defence, so there are no major surprises here.
Further up the pitch, Alexis Saelemaekers and Davide Bartesaghi will keep their spots as the wing-backs, while Adrien Rabiot is also a given these days. Despite the miss last time out, Youssouf Fofana is seemingly ahead of Ruben Loftus-Cheek, with Allegri praising him during the presser.
The final spot, i.e. the one that Modric usually occupies, will most likely be handed to Samuele Ricci. The former Torino man has done well off the bench, often as a mezz’ala, but his best position is indeed the deep-lying role. Of course, it would be a blow for Ardon Jashari.
Up front, as alluded to before, Milan have quite a lot of options for once and it seems Allegri hasn’t quite decided what to do here yet. After two games as a substitute, Niclas Füllkrug could get the chance from start for the first time, battling it out with Leao.
The Portuguese international has improved his physical condition but if he’s still not 100%, that could be just the opening the German striker needs. As for the remaining slot, Christian Pulisic should remain, hoping to get on the scoresheet this time out.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Ricci, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Fullkrug/Leao.
Predicted Milan bench: Terracciano, Torriani, Athekame, Dutu, Odogu, Estupinan, Fofana, Jashari, Modric, Nkunku, Fullkrug/Leao.
The opponents
As alluded to above, it’s been a shocking season for Fiorentina so far. After appointing Stefano Pioli in the summer, while keeping players such as Moise Kean and Pietro Comuzzo, the goal was definitely to fight for the European spots.
Pioli even aimed a jab at Massimiliano Allegri for not including La Viola as a candidate for the top-four race, which didn’t exactly age well for the former Milan manager. In fairness to him, though, Allegri revealed earlier today that he just forgot to say Fiorentina.
In any case, after collecting just four points in the first ten games (four draws, so no win), Fiorentina announced the decision to part ways with Pioli. A few days later, Paolo Vanoli was confirmed as the new manager and started his tenure with two draws.
After that, however, the struggles returned with three defeats on the trot. It’s only in the last few weeks that La Viola have turned things around, winning two and drawing one of their last four games. In other words, they are taking on Milan during their best moment of the season.
As for the squad, as we said above, Vanoli has many good players at his disposal. Kean is the obvious star, but the likes of Luca Ranieri, Robert Gosens, Rolando Mandragora and Albert Gudmundsson are also experienced names in the league. Not to mention Comuzzo and Nicolo Fagioli.
Tariq Lamptey and the veteran Edin Dzeko are the only injured players too, so Vanoli doesn’t really have any excuses in terms of squad quality. The same could be said for Pioli though really, and he still struggled to get things going.
The above means that Milan will be up against a rather strong starting eleven. It’s the third time he’s mentioned here, we know, but Kean will obviously be the one to watch given just how much damage he can cause (to the opponents) on a good day.
The former Milan man Marco Brescianini will be on the bench, having joined the club just yesterday on an initial loan deal from Atalanta.
Predicted Fiorentina XI (4-1-4-1): De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Fagioli; Parisi, Mandragora, Sohm, Gudmundsson; Kean.
Predicted Fiorentina bench: Christensen, Lezzerini, Kuoadio, Ranieri, Fortini, Marì, Kospo, Nicolussi-Caviglia, Brescianini, Fazzini, Ndour, Piccoli, Kouame, Solomo
Head to head
There have been 184 encounters between the two sides, with Milan winning 82 and Fiorentina winning 53. The remaining 49 games ended in draws, even if that has been a rather uncommon result for this fixture in recent times.
The last time Milan visited the Artemio Franchi was in October 2024, when Paulo Fonseca was still in charge of the team. It was a rather crazy one as three penalties were awarded, one to Fiorentina and two to the Rossoneri, but not a single one was converted.
Yacine Adli opened the scoring in that game, on loan from Milan, and Pulisic equalised with a lovely finish in the second half. Instead of sparking a win, however, that goal was followed by a mistake at the back and a 2-1 strike by Gudmundsson.
As for the reverse fixture this season, Milan prevailed 2-1 as Leao bagged both goals: the first a strike on the edge of the box and the second a penalty. Gosens was the goalscorer for Fiorentina in that game.
Key facts and stats
➤ AC Milan have won 79 of their 171 Serie A matches against Fiorentina (D45 L47), with the Rossoneri only recording more victories against Roma (81) in the competition. Fiorentina are also the side against whom AC Milan have scored the most goals (268) in Serie A.
➤ Only one of the last 11 Serie A matches between Fiorentina and Milan has ended in a draw (2-2 on 5 April at the Meazza), with Milan winning seven and Fiorentina winning three during this period.
➤ Fiorentina have won three of their last four home Serie A matches against AC Milan (L1), as many victories as they had recorded in their previous 18 league games at the Artemio Franchi against the Rossoneri (W3 D7 L8).
➤ Fiorentina are currently two Serie A games unbeaten (W1 D1), but they have not gone three consecutive matches without defeat in the competition this season. The Viola have gained seven points in their last four Serie A fixtures, one more than they collected in their first 15 league games of the season.
➤ After victories against Udinese and Cremonese, Fiorentina could win three consecutive Serie A home matches for the first time this season. The last time they achieved this was between February and March last year, under Raffaele Palladino, when they beat Lecce, Juventus and Atalanta.
➤ AC Milan could record as few as one defeat after 19 games in a single Serie A season for only the fourth time in the three-points-for-a-win era, after 1995/96, 2003/04 (AC Milan won the Scudetto in both of these seasons) and 2004/05 (AC Milan finished second in the league).
➤ AC Milan are the only away side to remain unbeaten in Serie A this season; with a record of W5 D3 in their eight games, conceding just five goals (the best away defence in the current Serie A campaign). Across Europe’s big five leagues in 2025/26, Bayern Munich are the only other side also still unbeaten on the road.
➤ Fiorentina have dropped 18 points from winning positions in Serie A this season, more than any other side. Conversely, AC Milan have gained 9 points from losing positions, the second-most in the league behind only Cagliari (11).
➤ Albert Gudmundsson is one of four players, alongside Kevin De Bruyne, Riccardo Orsolini and Nikola Vlasic, to have scored three penalties in Serie A this season. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, the Fiorentina player has converted nine of his 10 penalties in the competition; only Paulo Dybala (91%) has a better shot conversion rate from the spot than him (90%) among players who have taken at least eight in the top-flight over this period.
➤ Fiorentina are one of the two teams – along with Cagliari – against whom Rafael Leão has scored the most Serie A goals; the Portuguese forward has netted six times in just eight games against the Viola, although only one of those goals came at the Franchi (on 30th March 2024, in Fiorentina 1-2 Milan; Leão also provided an assist for Ruben Loftus-Cheek in that match).
Ones to watch
By the sounds of it, Ricci will be the one to replace Modric in the deep-lying midfield role. It’s a massive task for the Italian, that much is clear, but it would also be a chance for him to prove himself in his usual position. As a sub, he has often come on as a mezz’ala, which is really his second role.
Another player that has a point to prove is Saelemaekers, who was quite disappointing against Genoa mid-week. Allegri even touched on it during the presser, stating that the Belgian doesn’t have to work 100% all the time as that makes him tired, taking away his composure in attack.
For Fiorentina, let’s start with the big man in goal: De Gea. The Spaniard has had some excellent performances against Milan, including the aforementioned game when he saved two penalties, and the Rossoneri will have to be clinical to beat the experienced goalkeeper.
Then, it would be negligence not to mention Kean in this section. The striker didn’t start last time out due to a minor injury but now he’s back in full swing, hoping to impress in front of his friend Leao. If Colombo can hurt the Milan defence, then so can the Fiorentina star.
Prediction
It will be a much tougher game than the standings suggest, but most Milan fans know this already. Fiorentina have turned a corner and the Rossoneri have struggled in this fixture before, so it feels like a classic slip-up moment.
That said, Allegri will be keen to prove himself after some question marks against Genoa, and the same goes for the players. Plus, Fiorentina are still a little bit fragile mentally, which must be taken advantage of.
Fiorentina 0-1 Milan
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