Serie A preview: Lecce vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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After a loss in the first Serie A game of the season, AC Milan need to bounce back with three points against Lecce on Friday night. 

It has been a strange week for Milan; they have pursued several different targets in the mercato, and there have been questions about the happiness of Massimiliano Allegri. However, in his press conference, he gave nothing away, instead focusing on the game and the window, not himself.

After all, Friday’s game now looks to be quite big for the Rossoneri. The opening day defeat highlighted some big issues with the squad, and with the toxicity still engulfing the club, things need to improve quickly.


Game date: Friday, August 29
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST)
Venue: Stadio Via Del Mare
Referee: Livio Marinelli (VAR: Ghersini)


Team news

There have been no new signings since last weekend’s loss against Cremonese, so there can not be many changes to the XI. However, Milan are set to complete the signing of Christopher Nkunku tomorrow, so perhaps the lineup will be with him in mind.

A report earlier today suggested that Allegri had been trialling a 4-2-3-1 in training this week, with Alexis Saelemaekers on the right, Christian Pulisic on the left and then Luka Modric behind Santiago Gimenez.

However, an injury to Ardon Jashari means that this may be shelved for the time being, given the midfielder is expected to be out for a few months. Rafael Leao is also unable to play this weekend again.

So, it seems that Allegri will stick with the same system as he did for Matchday 1.

Mike Maignan will start in goal again, and despite suggestions that Koni De Winter could start for the Diavolo, it seems the defence will remain unchanged: Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic and Fikayo Tomori.

In midfield, it seems there will only be one change, though Allegri admitted he was not 100% sure of his team on Thursday morning. Nevertheless, that change would see Yunus Musah replace Saelemaekers on the right.

Up front, the North American pair of Christian Pulisic and Santiago Gimenez is expected to be chosen again. However, there are suggestions that Saelemaekers could start up top next to Gimenez, with Pulisic struggling with an ankle knock.

Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Musah, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Fofana, Estupiñan; Pulisic/Saelemaekers, Gimenez.


The opponents

Lecce ended the season on the verge of relegation, and some last-day drama saw them narrowly avoid the drop. So, there have been a few changes over the summer with the hope of moving higher in the league.

Eusebio Di Francesco arrived in June, replacing Marco Giampaolo after the season’s closing and he has invested this summer quite heavily, though they have needed to after a few years of losing prized assets.

Nikola Krstovic departed for €25 million to Atalanta, so Di Francesco will rely on Nikola Stulic from the Belgian Pro League (€5m) and a certain Francesco Camarda to score their goals this season. Whilst another familiar face in Riccardo Sottil, will hope to help them steer clear of relegation.

Camarda LeccePhoto by Simone Arveda/Getty Images

At the back, investment has been made into several younger prospects, including Jamil Siebert from Düsseldorf, Christ-Owen Kouassi, and Matias Perez from Chile.

This weekend, Di Francesco is likely to rely on a solid back five of Wladimiro Falcone, Kouassi, Gabriel, Gaspar and Gallo. Ahead of them, a bank of three is expected, with Coulibaly, Ramadani and Berisha looking to inspire from the middle.

Camarda should lead the team forward, supported by Morente and Pierrotti. A big chance to impress against his parent club for the youngster.

Predicted Lecce XI (4-3-3): Falcone; Kouassi, Gaspar, Gabriel, Gallo; Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha; Pierotti, Camarda, Morente


Head to head

Friday’s game will be the 46th meeting between Milan and Lecce, with the H2H record currently at 28 wins for Milan, 15 draws, and a mere two wins for Lecce. The Rossoneri also have a very positive H2H goal difference with 97 goals against the Via del Mare side’s 42.

Since Lecce made their recent-time return to Serie A, more specifically in 2019-20, there have been 8 meetings and while 3 of them ended in draws, there are some big wins in there for Milan. All except for the most recent one, which ended 2-3 in favour of the Rossoneri.

Despite two goals that were disallowed for narrow offsides, as well as two goals conceded, Milan managed to fight their way back in less than 15 minutes. Christian Pulisic scored twice, while an own-goal started the comeback.

Key stats and facts

➤ 23 official matches between the two teams at Via del Mare: 1 Lecce victory (1-0 in Serie A 2005/06, winning goal by Konan), 12 draws (the last one 2-2 in Serie A 2023/24) and 10 victories by the Rossoneri (the last one, 2-3 on Matchday 28, season 2024/25).

➤ In the last 7 matches between Lecce and Milan in Salento, both teams have always scored: 29 goals in total, an average of over 4 goals per game, 12 for the Giallorossi and 17 for the Rossoneri.

➤ Since his arrival at Milan, Christian Pulisic has scored 33 goals in 102 games. Four of those came against Lecce and Falcone, both the team and the goalkeeper against whom he scored the most. On March 8th, 2025, in a 2-3 match in Lecce, the American scored one of his two braces in Italy (the other came against Cagliari on May 11th, 2024).

➤ Massimiliano Allegri has only won two of his last 16 Serie A games. His last success was on April 7, 2024, with a 1-0 win against Fiorentina. The rest of the matches ended in nine draws and five defeats.

➤ 14 matches between Eusebio Di Francesco and Massimiliano Allegri, and the Milan coach is ahead with 10 wins. 2 wins for Di Francesco (the last one, October 28, 2015, SassuoloJuventus 1-0).


Ones to watch

There has been quite a lot of confusion regarding Milan’s XI, but if Gabbia were to start at the back again, then he would have to display more leadership. He has usually been very good at this, but the game against Cremonese was a step in the wrong direction. He can and must do better.

Up front, Santiago Gimenez simply has to prove himself to the fans and to Allegri, not just because of the poor display against Cremonese but also the Jashari injury. To put it this way, it hasn’t gone down well with the fans that he was the one who injured the Swiss international.

For the home side, we have to start with Francesco Camarda. He’s set to get his second consecutive start for Lecce and he obviously knows the Milan defenders well, which could be of use. They know him well too, though, so a strong performance will be needed.

One player who could be looking to feed the youngster with crosses is Antonino Gallo. The left-back is pretty good at crosses and likes to burst forward as well, so the Milan defence will have to keep an eye on his runs.


Prediction

Considering the chaos of the last few days, as well as Leao’s absence, we don’t view this as an easy game at all. Tension is running high due to the mercato developments and the Curva Sud will continue to remain silent, which will be felt even away from home.

Di Francesco is a coach who has caused Milan problems in the past and a draw is certainly within reach for the Via del Mare side.

Lecce 1-1 Milan 

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