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AC Milan face a huge test of their title credentials on Sunday night, as they take on Roma at the Stadio Olimpico.
Milan go into the game having won their last two games against Como and Lecce, but Inter’s 6-2 victory over Pisa on Friday night means they need to keep winning in order to keep pace. Roma have also done very well under Gian Piero Gasperini, so it will be a very challenging trip.
Massimiliano Allegri described the clash in the capital as an ‘exciting’ test for his side during his pre-match press conference, and it is looking like he might well have all but Santiago Gimenez fit and available.
Game date: Sunday, January 25
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
Referee: Andrea Colombo (VAR: Di Bello)
Team news
Going into the trip to Como, Milan had won just one of three league games to begin 2025. However, the victory by the lake and the 1-0 triumph over Lecce at San Siro last weekend have made it three wins in five, and 20 games unbeaten too.
If the Como game wasn’t, then this is certainly the first major test of the year for Allegri’s men, who are six points behind Inter for the time being after their win on Friday night. Roma are just four points back, so a defeat at the Olimpico could reopen everything.
The big question mark for Milan going into this game is the condition of Alexis Saelemaekers, who limped off during the closing stages of the Lecce game with an adductor issue. Scans ruled out anything serious, and the typical ‘monitor day by day’ treatment was prescribed by the medical staff.
Some good news emerged on Friday: the wing-back returned to training with the rest of the squad and therefore his place in the matchday squad seems certain. Given Allegri likes to exercise caution it remains unknown if he will start, but the coach spoke during his presser about the Belgian.
“As for the injuries, today we will have our last training session and evaluate everyone. Saelemaekers was much better yesterday, and today I will decide whether to start him or not.
“Gimenez will certainly be a great asset for the end of the season. Leao is still dealing with this small issue, but he will be available. We are ready to play this long, exciting, and challenging match.”
The other doubts seem to concern the centre-back department, where Koni De Winter is fighting for Fikayo Tomori’s spot. In midfield, Samuele Ricci is favoured over Youssouf Fofana at the moment, while Christian Pulisic should get the nod over Christopher Nkunku.
According to reports circulating at the moment, Mike Maignan should be in goal with Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic as the three-man defence. Saelemaekers is currently tipped to recover, with Davide Bartesaghi on the other flank.
Samuele Ricci, Luka Modric and Adrien Rabiot are the midfield three that Allegri is presently inclined to pick, and then the front two is down as Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao. The bench looks relatively healthy too, something that has been a rarity.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Ricci, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao.
Predicted Milan bench: Terracciano, Pittarella; De Winter, Odogu, Estupinan, Athekame; Jashari, Loftus-Cheek, Fofana; Nkunku, Füllkrug.
Milan battles: Tomori-De Winter 60-40%, Ricci-Fofana 60-40%, Saelemaekers-Athekame 60-40%, Pulisic-Nkunku 60-40%.
Injuries & suspensions: Gimenez.
The opponents
The 2024-25 season was rather hectic for Roma, or at least up until November, with two coaches shown the door (Daniele De Rossi and Ivan Juric) before Claudio Ranieri was brought back. Unsurprisingly, he managed to get the team going and secured a 5th-place finish in the end.
In our preview before the meeting with Roma at San Siro earlier in the season, we recapped what was a busy summer for the Giallorossi. Gian Piero Gasperini is at the helm, and his side have quite literally teetered one way and the other.
Why is that? Roma have played 21 league games, one Coppa Italia game and seven in the Europa League, and they are yet to draw a single won. In Serie A they have won 14 and lost seven, while they have five wins in seven in Europe, and lost in the cup to Torino.
Roma are quite remarkably coming into this game off the back of four 2-0 wins in a row. Domestically they beat Lecce away, Sassuolo at home and Torino away, then on Thursday night they emerged victors against Bundesliga high-fliers VfB Stuttgart to jump into the top eight.
There are four probably absentees for the game, according to the latest from La Gazzetta dello Sport: Artem Dovbyk (returns on matchday 30), Stephan El Shaarawy (to be evaluated), Mario Hermoso (returns on matchday 26) and Angelino (to be evaluated).
The coach has a few doubts about his side, starting from the presumption that Dybala and Malen are effectively guaranteed to start in attack. Cristante, Pellegrini and Soulé are competing for the final spot in the front three. That means Pisilli (or El Aynaoui) in midfield alongside Koné.
Alternatively, he could go with the 3-4-2-1, a formation in which Pellegrini currently has the advantage over Soulé in the left attacking midfielder role. In defence, Ghilardi ‘s excellent performance against Stuttgart means he should play alongside Mancini and Ndicka. Wesley and Celik should be wing-backs.
The source think that Mile Svilar will be between the posts, with Mancini, Ndicka and Ghilardi as the three-man defence. Celik and Wesley are the wing-backs. Cristante and Kone are down as the double pivot behind Pellegrini, Dybala and Malen.
Predicted Roma XI (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi; Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley; Pellegrini, Dybala; Malen.
Predicted Roma bench: Gollini, Vasquez; Tsimikas, Rensch, Ziolkowski, Lulli; Pisilli, El Aynaoui, Arena; El Shaarawy, Ferguson, Vaz, Soulé.
Injuries & suspensions: Dovbyk, Angelino, Hermoso.
Head to head
It will be the 204th encounter between the two sides. In the 203 games played so far, the Rossoneri are ahead with 86 wins compared to the Giallorossi’s 54, while there have been 63 draws.
Last season, Roma took four points out of six. At San Siro it was a 1-1 draw after goals from Tijjani Reijnders and Paulo Dybala. Back in the capital it was a 3-1 home win with Mancini, Paredes and Cristante scoring, while Joao Felix scored for Milan and Gimenez got a red card in the 21st minute.
Earlier this season, there was plenty of drama at the Meazza. The goal came from Strahinja Pavlovic after a well-worked counter-attack, and Dybala missed a penalty in the second half that will perhaps still haunt him.
Key facts and stats
➤ AC Milan have won more Serie A matches against Roma than any other opponent (81 wins from 181 matches, with 54 draws and 46 victories for Roma). Furthermore, AC Milan have now scored 262 Serie A goals against Roma – they have only netted more against Fiorentina (269).
➤ AS Roma have lost nine of their last 16 Serie A matches (W2 D5) against AC Milan, including the reverse fixture (0-1). This is as many defeats as they suffered against the Rossoneri in their previous 34 league encounters. Since 2018, the Giallorossi have only lost more Serie A matches against Atalanta (10) than against AC Milan (9).
➤ AC Milan lost their last match at the Olimpico against Roma last May (3-1) and have not suffered at least two consecutive away defeats against teams from the capital in Serie A since 2012 (three times on that occasion, under Massimiliano Allegri), with two against Lazio and one against Roma.
➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 20 Serie A games (W13 D7); among teams in the big five European leagues, only Bayern Munich have a longer current unbeaten run (27) than Massimiliano Allegri’s side.
➤ AS Roma have won each of their last three Serie A matches without conceding a goal; the Giallorossi could record four consecutive Serie A wins, while keeping a clean sheet each time, for the first time since September/October 2013 (seven in a row in that instance, under Rudi Garcia).
➤ AC Milan have made the fewest substitutions in Serie A this season with just 78, at least 13 fewer than any other side and 21 fewer than Roma (99). They also made the fewest substitutions last term after their first 21 league games with 83.
➤ AS Roma and AC Milan are two of the three teams that have gained the most points compared to their first 21 Serie A matches last season. AS Roma rank joint-first with Como with +15 points (42 v 27), while AC Milan are third with +12 points (46 v 34).
➤ Paulo Dybala has been involved in 13 goals (8 goals, 5 assists) against AC Milan in Serie A (also 13 against Sassuolo); only against Udinese has he been involved in more goals in the top-flight (21). However, the Argentine, who scored in the last league match away to Torino, has netted all of his last four league goals away from home and hasn’t scored at the Olimpico in the competition for over a year (399 days since 22nd December 2024 against Parma).
➤ Donyell Malen scored against Torino on his Serie A debut; in the three-points-for-a-win era (since 1994-95), only two players have scored in each of their first two Serie A games for AS Roma: Sérgio Oliveira (January 2022) and current Inter manager Cristian Chivu (September 2003).
➤ Rafael Leão has been involved in eight goals (2 goals, 6 assists) against Roma in all competitions, only recording more goal involvements against Lazio (9) for AC Milan (also 8 against Cagliari). In particular, his six assists against Roma is a record for the Portuguese against a single opponent in official matches.
Ones to watch
A lot of eyes will once again be on the Leao-Pulisic front two for Milan, the duo that have started together in only three league games so far leading to some obvious signs regarding a lack of chemistry. Both are match-winners on their day though, and it could well click.
It will be another litmus test in Bartesaghi’s young career against Celik, while Saelemaekers returning to the Olimpico will be interesting. Rabiot of course is key, and Gabbia will be asked to anchor the defensive line.
Roma have not exactly been free-scoring this season, but Soule has stood our as their main attacking threat with 10 goal contributions in the league (six goals, four assists). Next is the resurgent Evan Ferguson, who has two goals three assists.
Then, there is Dybala. The Argentine has played 28 matches against the Rossoneri, which is the most he has played against any team across all competitions. In this span, he has been on the winning team 15 times, with 10 goals and six assists.
Mancini likes a goal and a big performance against Milan, and is a threat from set pieces which the Diavolo have struggled with at times. It also feels like Cristante will want to hurt his former club again too.
Prediction
While Roma haven’t drawn yet this season, it feels like they have to eventually. This also feels like an immovable force meeting an unstoppable object given the form and defensive records of each side. Therefore, it feels very hard to pick a winner, though all three results are very possible.
Roma 1-1 Milan
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