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Liverpool has not been short of transfer excitement this summer. Even with the deals completed already, including a potential British record move for Florian Wirtz, it has been a far more eventful off-season than usual at Anfield — but current discussion understandably revolves around Alexander Isak.
Anticipation has grown at Anfield as the prospects of a deal moved from fanciful to plausible, with Richard Hughes even getting as far as submitting a bid. This is not the kind of move that Liverpool makes, and yet the will to complete a transfer is quite clearly there.
But while the Reds are not lacking in either ambition or desire, I have always struggled to see how a move might come to fruition. Now more than ever, there are numerous reasons why a transfer will not happen.
Some of those relate to Newcastle's abject failure to get suitable (or indeed any) replacements through the door, notably including a humiliating Benjamin Sesko fiasco. But in truth, the odds have been stacked against an agreement from the outset.
Newcastle holds all the cards
In many ways, the whole saga boils down to the contract situation. It's clear that Isak wants the move to Liverpool, but regardless of what he and his agent throw at the issue, the inescapable fact is that he remains contracted to Newcastle for another three years.
Usually, a player's best leverage in the transfer market is the threat of ultimately walking away for nothing. Even with near-limitless Saudi backing, Newcastle would be hugely reluctant to let that happen with Isak, given that cashing in for even a fraction of his value would ease PSR concerns for years to come.
But that threat holds no water for Isak just yet. Newcastle knows that it could keep him for another year, perhaps longer, and still net a significant transfer fee for his services.
This has been a major stumbling block from the very start. Fundamentally, it is hard to find a compelling financial or sporting motivation for Newcastle to sell Isak.
Isak's strike threats not credible
Isak's only remaining recourse is to effectively threaten to go on strike. He has essentially done just that, intimating that he will not play for the club again even if a transfer is not arranged.
But it has to be said that this is a pretty obvious bluff. Does anyone genuinely believe that Isak — if denied a transfer — will just opt to sit on the sidelines for an absolute minimum of four months, and perhaps even longer?
The very reason he wants a transfer, as Eddie Howe has admitted, is that a footballer's career is short. Too short, you would have thought, to opt out of half a season when Premier League and Champions League minutes are on offer.
He is far from the first player to try a hardline stance. But he would be one of the first to actually follow through.
Ultimately, if Newcastle does not back down, the overwhelming likelihood is that Howe reintegrates him, and the Magpies are once again able to call upon the services of their elite striker. Liverpool knows that as well as anyone; Philippe Coutinho played the football of his life in the six months after his mysterious summer "back injury".
There is the smallest of caveats that Isak is exiting the "protected period" of his contract under FIFA regulations, meaning that he could technically follow through by buying himself out of his own contract without the prospect of a four-month ban from the sport. But again, no high-profile transfer saga has ever ended in such dramatic fashion, and Newcastle will rightly not consider it to be a genuine risk.
Saudi prestige project
With all that being said, a "normal" club might still be expected to sell under these circumstances. Liverpool is offering huge money, and Newcastle could theoretically reinvest that in a comprehensive rebuild.
Look at what Liverpool did with the Coutinho money, after he was eventually allowed to leave in January. Newcastle is trying to take that same step to the very highest echelons of the game, and the roadmap is there to be followed.
But Newcastle is state-owned. It has already been humiliating enough for Saudi Arabia to face rejection from so many transfer targets this summer, and losing the talismanic striker on top of that would be especially galling.
Even in comparison to other clubs with state involvement, Newcastle is uniquely positioned. With no sporting director or CEO in place at the moment, the Saudi Public Investment Fund is effectively calling the shots directly, along with Howe.
With that in mind, the usual transfer rules go out of the window. If the Saudis have decided they don't want to pay the reputational cost of losing Isak, then that's effectively the end of the matter.
Newcastle can't lose Isak
Finally, we come to the matter of Isak's importance to the Newcastle team. Even without the complication of being rejected by a starting XI's worth of strikers, the Magpies would not have been able to truly replace the Swede.
Top-level strikers are in short supply. Indeed, that's why Liverpool is prepared to go so big on Isak, who is older than the typical Anfield age profile.
And having reached this stage in the window, with so many deals already done, Newcastle's options are all the more limited. Liverpool is even partly responsible, having snapped up Hugo Ekitike.
What might this season look like for Newcastle if it sold Isak? Even with a couple of decent signings designed to somewhat plug the shortfall of goals — Yoane Wissa and Samu Aghehowa, for example — competitive ambitions would undoubtedly drop.
Isak is as close as it gets to an indisposable asset. That does tend to make transfers complicated.
Liverpool's one hope
The one thing that has genuinely changed since the start of the transfer window is that nobody was counting on Isak and his camp pushing this hard for a move. While Newcastle can easily ignore his threats never to play again, it will be harder to disregard the effect he is having on his teammates.
Howe places a lot of emphasis on team culture. If he concludes that there is no way back for Isak with the group (not to mention the fans), that will alter the equation slightly.
The striker appears to have realized that kicking up a major stink could be his only route out this summer. If relations were to deteriorate even further, perhaps Howe might put his foot down with the owners and insist on a sale — he has an outsized say in the absence of any proper sporting structure, which may yet work in Liverpool's advantage.
But again, that is very hard to envisage. No doubt Isak will have put some noses out of joint, but these things tend to simmer down once the transfer market is shut.
The example of Coutinho (or indeed Virgil van Dijk) is instructive once more. Things that seem irreparable in the transfer window can often get patched up very quickly once it becomes clear a move is not happening.
As in those cases, the transfer may well get done eventually. But Liverpool might need to show patience beyond the end of the summer.
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