The statistical and the emotional: What the Allegri 2.0 era at Milan looks like five games in

There is something about Massimiliano Allegri returning to AC Milan that brought a sense of safety, a theme that has already been touched on. 

However, attached to his return was a romance. Allegri’s start to his Milan career was superb, but it only went downhill, and by the end of his tenure, the joys of his first season were a distant memory, with the results tanking.

In the time between his departure and return, he established himself as one of the greatest Italian, if not European, coaches of an era. His time with Juventus is not only brilliant but probably legendary. In recent memory, few coaches have dominated anywhere in such a manner.

Whilst his football may not be that of a poster boy of the beautiful game, he epitomises everything that football boils down to: winning. So, with the Rossoneri desperate for results over style, the call was made to bring him back.

Revisiting last season… again

Here, it is important to take a step back and actually analyse him as a coach, just briefly. After all, this is not something to look at him as a coach, but rather the impacts so far, and the best way to do that is by going back to last summer.

When Paulo Fonseca was appointed, Zlatan Ibrahimovic announced the decision in a press conference.

“We want his identity with the players we have, an attacking-minded football. After five years, with all due respect to Pioli, we wanted to come up with something new and fresh for the players.

“We have studied how Fonseca prepares matches, how he prepares the players and how he sets up his teams. We wanted to bring something new to San Siro as well. With the players that we have, we want it to click, and Fonseca fits the bill; he is the right man.”

There are certain bits from that press conference bolded for a reason. It would be silly to suggest that there is an underlying theme from that. Last summer, the Diavolo aimed to hire a coach who could work with the current squad whilst bringing ‘new’ and ‘attacking-minded’ football. Nothing in Ibra’s words suggests that to be underlying.  

Photo by Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images

Those statements are big for several reasons: asking for two different ideas, with one coach. Of course, it was possible; everyone hoped as much. However, possible and probable are two completely different things. 

So, when the Portuguese was sacked in late December, it was not really a shock that it had failed. In fact, it was more shocking that things were allowed to get that late into a season. Then, Sergio Conceicao was hired, and a lot of panic was had in the mercato, making decisions which should have happened in either summer window. 

Just looking at the paper situations, last season, one where the Milanese management wanted ‘attacking football’, the team scored 61 goals, which was the third highest. Yet, they also made 11 new signings. That is not doing it with the ‘players that we have’. 

Back to the Future

Allegri’s appointment, then, at least on paper, goes against that ‘attacking-minded’ brand of football that the Diavolo sought less than 12 months before his appointment. Now, that is not a dig on him, but rather, that his football is traditionally heavily focused on defence. It is also not to say that his football is exclusively defensive. 

Additionally, it was a change from the ‘do it ourselves’ situation that Ibrahimovic stated last summer. The Rossoneri were active in the market, and arguably could have even been more involved, had they signed another striker and potentially a centre-half. 

In terms of expenditure, only €35 million more was spent this summer compared to the entirety of last season, whilst 10 players arrived. That is clear proof that Allegri, Igli Tare and the club recognised the need for change in the team. 

Fantastic Four and Cremonese

So, what has the start of the Allegrian era looked like, then? Well, a first defeat of the season against Cremonese was a woeful start. In fact, it probably worsened the hangover that was left from the previous year. 

Looking back on it now, perhaps it was a good thing. It was proof that the Rossoneri were an unfinished article, and this caused another dip back into the market, with Christopher Nkunku and Adrien Rabiot, of note, arriving. 

Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Since then, both have had impacts in Rossoneri colours. Nkunku bagged a goal against Lecce in the Coppa Italia, whilst Rabiot has looked pivotal to the workings of Allegri’s team so far. Though we’ll get more into that. 

So, what themes have really emerged from the first few games?

Defensive work

It is best to start with Allegri’s crowning piece, his defensive work. It is not just tactically where the coach provides this. No, it is much deeper, and it actually starts from a mental aspect, as seen with Mike Maignan recently. Of course, this is another theme in itself, though. 

So far this season, only one team has conceded fewer goals than the Rossoneri, and that is Roma, who have conceded once under Gasperini, and also sit in the top three. To caveat that, they have played Bologna, Pisa, Torino, Lazio and Verona; together, they have scored 19 goals in Serie A this season. 

This is compared to the Rossoneri, who have conceded three times. However, they have faced Napoli, Udinese, Bologna, Lecce and Cremonese, teams that combined have scored 30 times so far. 

So, to face more prolific teams and only concede twice more is rather impressive, and especially Allegri-themed. 

It is also key to note that his side went almost 500 minutes without conceding, before Napoli scored their penalty at the weekend. Using just the basic facts of things, last season, the Rossoneri conceded a goal every 80 or so minutes, not factoring in injury time. 

That is a significant improvement. Of course, those stats could change, but the difference already is drastic. Perhaps, already, the biggest thing to note over the first five games.

Goalscoring returns

There is a beautiful irony in this part. Milan wanted attacking football, and they have found it from the man who is so renowned for being a defensive coach. It has even gotten to the point where the media have deemed him to be playing entertaining football, an idea that has made him smile, as he proclaimed.

Allegri’s football may not be built upon getting the ball into the net as often as possible. However, with the Rossoneri, his team are scoring at a fantastic rate. In fact, they have scored the fourth most goals in Serie A this season, all without a, with respect, firing striker.

The total figure could definitely be higher; we just need to look at Santiago Gimenez. So far, the Mexican has missed seven big chances, the most of any striker in the league, and has not scored a Serie A goal from more than 2 xG. 

Photo by AC Milan

Moise Kean is the only striker with a ‘worse’ record than him in the league, failing to score from 2.75 xG. However, he has also had five fewer big chances. So, this proves that the issue may lie with Allegri’s big request. A goalscorer. The Diavolo are clearly creating chances, but putting them away is proving difficult. 

As a counter to that, to stop this from being a witch hunt for Gimenez, the striker opened the space for Alexis Saelemaekers’ goal at the weekend. So, he is still providing value in the team, even if it is not in a traditional way, something that coaching can help with, and clearly is. 

Like with the defensive aspects of the game, things can very obviously change. However, if this record continues, they will outscore their record from last season by seven goals. Again, a beautiful irony and one that is making Allegri smile.

Effectiveness & Unity

Placing this part in is difficult because it can be argued that it is the most important. In fact, each of these points is the most important, arguably. However, Milan are back to being a well-oiled machine; there is clarity across the pitch, and it can be seen.

Defensively, Allegri has a set back three/back four, and there has not been any shifting of this, at all, barring the occasional rotation. This is light-years away from whatever was the case last season, where the team had nearly 20 defensive combinations.

In midfield, again, there is a set choice of players, each providing positives with few, if any, negatives. Each piece is quality, and provides something to better the team, which, as a unit, is worth more than the sum of its parts.

Up front, questions can be asked, but with the star missing, that was to be expected. In five games time, we will likely know what Allegri really wants from his team going forward. So for now, we are forced to feed off scraps of an idea.

It is an effective team; there is no one in there that you can really say contributes nothing. Perhaps, you would look to Gimenez, again, here. However, him doing nothing is an argument largely (and probably correctly) powered by a lack of goals. 

Either way, he still provides value to the team, and if he starts scoring, there is a debate to be had about who plays where in the forward line.  

Then, there is the second part of this. Milan are back towards being a team, something which has been identified regularly in the past week. At full-time against Napoli, Allegri’s side quickly went up to one another, hugging and celebrating together. 

His team fights for each other, wins for each other and helps one another. Perhaps, you could argue that last year’s team was one of individuals; now, it is powered by them, creating a greater combination. 

To feed into the last point a little bit, too, this weekend was the return of the Curva Sud, and whilst there are still issues there, the team were much better at home with their presence. In fact, many of the players have celebrated their return to San Siro on social media since. 

That unity with the fanbase, as seen with the celebration at the end of the game, seems to be back. Both sides appreciate the efforts of one another. A 12th man, another part of the team. All players and the fans are fighting for the same cause. Milan.

Joy

This is more of a personal one than something statistical. However, there can be no denying the fact that San Siro has become much less toxic, social media, less toxic. The whole environment surrounding the club feels less pressured.

There has been a real uptake in the saying ‘got my joy back’ in the past 18 months on social media, and it feels fitting to suggest that the Rossoneri have theirs back. Heading into games, there is still that anxiousness that comes from supporting any team/situation. 

However, there is that ambitious optimism that has not really been felt around the club in an awful long time. Yet, the club are not submitting to it, at least not publicly.

Talk of a Scudetto fight swarms around the club, yet Allegri is focused on a Champions League spot. That is the bare minimum, but there is no talk of the maximum. Last year, there were repeated suggestions that a Scudetto could or maybe should arrive with the squad.

Now, that feeling is just from the fanbase, not being pushed by the club. Expectations, in that sense, are minimal.

Instead, it is just a case of enjoying the change for the sake of enjoying it. There is no pressure on something more. Rather, Milan are just hitting a level which they have not for a long, long time. 

It is early days, of course, but like Allegri, it seems that everyone is smiling, and there is a large case to be presented that this is not even a finished article. After all, you’ve still got Rafael Leao to add to the mix. 

With the player who is known for his grin, who knows how wide the smile may get? It would be easy to get carried away, but there is a beauty about living in the present, which is what the Rossoneri (and everyone) should settle on.

Allegri has brought the Diavolo’s joy back. He seems to have got his own joy back, even if there are still frustrations. The season has a long way to go yet, but something feels different.