GdS: How Milan are currently shaping up in relation to Allegri’s points and goals targets

Massimiliano Allegri has set the target for AC Milan this season as the top four, and he knows the numbers required to achieve that.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport write, Allegri is a more direct coach than most and he proved that on the eve of the match against Pisa. He gave numbers, namely those he believes are needed: 1) to win the league; 2) to qualify for the Champions League.

A numbers game

What are these figures? Simple: to win the Scudetto, the goals conceded must be between 20 and 25. To return to the top European spots, a minimum of 74 points is needed. Releasing these figures publicly is an act of courage because it sets a bar that, if not met, leaves one open to criticism.

These are the sort of tables that coaches normally try to avoid, as they are classic traps. Allegri, however, has returned to Milan to put his face forward. To bring the Rossoneri back to where they belong, and therefore has no qualms about exposing himself.

In the meantime, however, a projection can certainly be made, starting from the current data. Milan have 17 points (up three from a year ago). Maintaining this average (2.1 per game), they would end the season with 81 points: 80.7, to be precise. That’s well above Max’s 74.

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Considering the minimum goal of fourth place and looking at the final standings of the last five seasons, it would be more than enough: Juventus in 2024-25 finished on 70, Atalanta 2023-24 on 69, then Milan 2022-23 on 70.

Indeed, if the top teams continue like this this year, with ups and downs, 81 points could perhaps even be enough for the Scudetto: last season, Napoli won it with 82 points. Speaking of which, Milan have conceded just six goals this season through eight games.

]Maintaining this average, they would end the season with 28.5. So, according to Allegri’s thinking, that is too many. Again considering the previous five seasons, the data partially supports him: in 2024-25, Napoli won the league with 27 goals allowed, and in 2023-24, Inter with 22.

But, in 2022-23, Napoli again conceded 28 goals, in 2021-22, Milan with 31, and in 2020-21, Inter with a whopping 35 (obviously, the higher the number of goals conceded, the greater the offensive output needed).