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There are four weeks and many games until the next instalment of the Derby della Madonnina, but it is already looking like an approaching watershed.
Massimiliano Allegri has repeatedly spoken in the media about the notion of getting to March and seeing where Milan are, above all with regards to the race for the Champions League places, but also with an eye on that forbidden dream: the Scudetto.
The gap is eight points between the Milanese sides, with 12 available for Milan between now and the rematch with Inter, while nine are up for grabs for Cristian Chivu’s side. So, how does the next 28 days look in the build-up to the big one?
The schedules compared
In a piece published on Saturday, we provided a comparison of how Milan and Inter’s schedules are shaping up before the big game. Since writing that, Inter have crossed one of their commitments off, beating Sassuolo at the MAPEI Stadium on Sunday evening.
So, the nine games (four for the red side, five for the blue side) that await between now and the return derby are as follows:
Milan
- Pisa-Milan: February 13, 20:45
- Milan-Como: February 18, 20:45
- Milan-Parma: February 22, 18:00
- Cremonese-Milan: TBA (February 27-March 1)
Inter
- Inter-Juventus: February 14, 20:45
- Bodo/Glimt-Inter: February 18, 21:00
- Lecce-Inter: February 21, 18:00
- Inter-Bodo/Glimt: February 24, 21:00
- Inter-Genoa: TBA (February 27-March 1)
The first major and substantial difference in Inter and Milan’s calendars was revealed by this week’s work schedule. While the Nerazzurri were busy in the Coppa Italia and played in the league today, the Rossoneri squad were given Thursday, Friday and Saturday off.
It is a rare luxury, possible because Milan has a free weekend. The schedule would have featured a home game against Como, but the Winter Olympics at San Siro caused it to be postponed. It will not be played in Australia as initially planned, but at the Meazza on Wednesday 18 February.
Clash of styles
Back in November before the first derby, one that Milan won 1-0 thanks to Christian Pulisic’s goal, we published an analysis of how the two sides of the city are now united by formation (both play a 3-5-2) but have diverged down separate philosophical paths.
To distill things down a bit, Chivu’s side remain monsters when it comes to playing with a high intensity press, to try and create high volumes of chances. Allegri, meanwhile, continues to lean into the ‘contain and counter’ approach which has served well in the six-pointers thus far.
Given the significant workload difference, the first thing that stands out in this month leading up to the derby is the number of matches. Inter will play six: three more league matches, two Champions League matches, and one Coppa Italia match. Milan will play four league matches only.
Inter’s double European fixture is against Bodo/Glimt, a team that are inferior to the Nerazzurri on paper, but one that have caused problems for virtually every top side they have faced due to their own merits, the weather and the distance.
While Milan try to manage their workload and get through the one commitment per week, the question mark becomes if Inter can keep up playing such an intense and draining style. So far they have maintained a ridiculous pace in the league, yet the final two months is almost a season of its own.
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The big occasions
While Inter continue to put the teams in the bottom half to the sword (they have taken 39 out of 42 available points against teams 11th-20th), the big question mark surrounding them remains the six-pointers.
Thus far, Chivu’s side have dropped points against Milan, Juventus and Napoli. In fact, they lost three of those games (the derby, Juventus away and Napoli away), drawing 2-2 against the champions at San Siro. So, that’s one point out of 12.
While Inter have taken 26% of points available against teams in the top five (also beating Roma at the Stadio Olimpico), Milan’s record against the same bracket is 73%. The big matches have gone from being kryptonite to elixir.
Allegri is the big-game master, as his wins over Inter, Napoli, Roma, Como and Lazio show. By contrast, the Rossoneri have obtained 28 out of 39 points available against sides in the bottom half, dropping them against the likes of Cremonese, Pisa, Parma and Sassuolo.
There are some similarities with the derby of February 2022, when Milan were several points behind Inter going into the second meeting of the season, but won 2-1 thanks to a brace from Olivier Giroud and would eventually go on to lift the title, thanks also to aways wins against Napoli and Lazio.
Form and fitness
Looking at the injury situation for both sides, Inter currently have Denzel Dumfries, Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella out. However, the only one at risk for the derby is Dumfries following ankle surgery, a player who is no stranger to heated battles against Milan.
Milan meanwhile were without Christian Pulisic and Alexis Saelemaekers against Bologna last week, while Rafael Leao and Niclas Füllkrug are not 100%. Santiago Gimenez is continuing to recoverer from ankle surgery so far too.
The good news is that none are particularly long-term, though Gimenez – who should return to training later this month, but has been out for many weeks now – is almost certain to be out. Injuries can and will of course happen between now and March 8.
The Nerazzurri are a free-scoring side and they have two players on double digits for league goal contributions: Lautaro Martinez (17) and Federico Dimarco (13). They also have five players with five goals or more in Serie A: Ange-Yoan Bonny (5), Dimarco (5), Marcus Thuram (6), Calhanoglu (7) and Lautaro (13).
Dimarco is the in-form man at the time of writing, with 10 goal contributions (four goals, six assists) in his last eight appearances across all competitions. His last four games for Inter have seen him produce six assists and two goals from left wing-back.
By contrast, Milan have scored 19 less goals than their city rivals 38 compared to 57, albeit with one game less played) and have allowed two less goals. Naturally, this means less impressive numbers from an attacking standpoint.
Pulisic is the only player to hit double figures for goal contributions (eight goals, two assists). Leao is on nine, with one less goal than the American. The main story from a form perspective is that Adrien Rabiot and Christopher Nkunku have surged onto 4G, 4A and 5G, 2A respectively.
While waiting to see if either manager pulls a surprise trick, Inter have been lining up in a 3-5-2 with Sommer in goal; Akanji, Acerbi and Bastoni in the back three; Luis Henrique and Dimarco as wing-backs; Barella, Calhanoglu and Sucic/Zielinski across the midfield; and Martinez-Thuram as the front two.
Allegri has had to tinker recently due to injuries in attack, but in theory the first choice XI would be Maignan in goal; Tomori-Gabbia-Pavlovic/De Winter; Saelemaekers, Fofana/Ricci, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Leao, Pulisic.
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